Gorton’s Green Shockwave: Why Hartlepool Could Be the Next Domino to Fall
- 16 hours ago
- 2 min read
Labour Pushed to Third in the Gorton & Denton By-Election: Is Reform UK Now the Real Opposition in Towns Like Hartlepool?
27th Feb 2026
The Green Party’s seismic victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election hasn't just redrawn the map of Manchester; it's sent a shudder through every Labour stronghold in the North, with Hartlepool now firmly in the crosshairs for Labours opponents in the upcoming May Local Elections.
For a seat historically considered as "safe" for Labour, For the constituency of Gorton & Denton to fall to a third party is rare; for it to happen to a sitting labour government is almost unheard of.
Here's why this result is a flashing red light for the future of politics in Hartlepool.
1. The Death of the "Safe Seat"
In 2024, Gorton and Denton was Labour’s 39th safest seat. Today, that majority evaporated in a massive 25% swing away from the party. The message seems to be clear, in that voters living in post-industrial northern towns are seemingly no longer tied to traditional party loyalties. If a constituency like Gorton can fall, Hartlepool—which has already flirted with change via UKIP, the Brexit Party, and a Conservative by-election win in 2021—is now a prime target for parties such as Reform UK.
2. Reform UK: The "Shadow" Winner
While the Greens took the trophy in the Gorton & Denton By-Election, Reform UK secured a powerful second-place finish with 28.7% of the vote, pushing Labour into an embarrassing third. In Hartlepool, Reform already commands a massive following, having taken nearly a quarter of the vote in the last General Election in Hartlepool. Current projections now suggest Reform could comfortably clear 50% in Hartlepool if a By-Election was to be held in the seaside town.
3. A Multi-Front War for Labour
The Gorton result proves that Keir Starmer is now fighting a war on two fronts. In urban centres, the Green Party is poaching progressives; in working-class coastal and northern towns like Hartlepool, Reform UK is capturing the "left behind" vote. This "pincer movement" leaves Labour with a shrinking middle ground, making it increasingly difficult to hold a diverse coalition of voters together.
4. Echoes of 2021
For those living in Hartlepool, this feels like déjà vu. The 2021 by-election defeat was the lowest point of Starmer’s early leadership. While he recovered then, the loss of Gorton and Denton suggests the "honeymoon" of the 2024 General Election victory is now officially over. Political analysts are already drawing parallels where if Labour can't protect its heartlands, its grip on power is effectively over, despite Labours majority in Parliament..
The Red Walls Being Rebuilt in a Way Labour Never Expected: The Gorton and Denton result confirms that the "Red Wall" isn't just cracking—it’s being rebuilt by entirely different architects. For Hartlepool, the next election won't just be a two-horse race; it will be a battle for the very identity of northern representation.
