Hartlepool’s Population Predicted to Rise to 106,000 in 2046...
Hartlepool Faces Major Demographic Shift as Older Population Surges and Number of Children Falls..
9th Sep 2026
Hartlepool could be heading towards a significant demographic transformation over the next two decades, with new council-backed housing research forecasting a sharp rise in the number of older residents while the borough’s child population falls considerably.
The figures are contained within Hartlepool Borough Council’s latest Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA), which is due to go before members of the Neighbourhoods and Regulatory Services Committee on the 15th of September 2026.
The assessment has been prepared to help shape the borough’s next Local Plan and future housing policies modeling what Hartlepool could look like if around 366 new homes a year are delivered between 2024 and 2046.
Hartlepool population could rise above 106,000…
Under the new modelling, Hartlepool’s population is projected to increase from approximately 98,180 in 2024 to 106,642 by 2046 — an increase of around 8,460 people, or 8.6%.
But the most striking part of the projection is where that growth is expected to come from, where its claimed the number of people aged 65 and over is forecast to rise from around 19,648 to 25,311, representing an increase of approximately 28.8%.
Meanwhile, the number of children under the age of 16 is projected to fall from 18,544 to 15,916 — a drop of more than 2,600 children, or 14.2%.
The working-age population, those aged between 16 and 64, is projected to rise by around 9%. Taken together, the figures point towards a borough which could become considerably older over the coming decades.
Dementia and mobility needs also expected to rise
The changing age profile could also place increasing pressure on housing, social care and health services where the assessment forecasts a 61% increase in the number of people aged 65 and over living with dementia, alongside a 48% increase in older residents with mobility problems with the changing population expected to create substantial demand for specialist and accessible housing.
The assessment also concludes that there’s a clear need to increase the supply of accessible, adaptable and wheelchair-friendly housing across the borough, suggesting the council consider requiring all new homes to meet adaptable housing standards, with approximately 5% of market housing and around 10% of affordable housing meeting wheelchair-user standards, although it acknowledges that viability and site-specific circumstances could affect this.
Big implications for Hartlepool
Although these figures are projections, they illustrate the scale of the challenge facing future councils. A growing older population is likely to mean a greater demand for adult social care, accessible housing, supported accommodation and health services.
At the same time, a projected decline in the number of children could eventually have implications for schools and other services traditionally planned around younger families.
The findings are particularly significant because the assessment says Hartlepool already has much higher levels of disability than the national picture with housing policy becoming an increasingly important part of how the borough prepares for demographic change.
Thousands of homes still expected
The Government’s standard housing methodology suggests Hartlepool should plan for around 366 homes per year, while actual housing delivery since 2021/22 has averaged approximately 482 homes annually.
The SHMA says that delivering the modelled level of housing could support population growth of around 8,500 people and potentially contribute towards supporting somewhere between 4,200 and 6,900 additional jobs over the longer term.
However, the report suggests that simply building more homes will not be enough.
The type of housing being constructed is likely to become increasingly important — particularly accessible housing, smaller affordable properties, retirement accommodation and homes capable of supporting residents with increasingly complex care needs with the new assessment now having to be considered by councillors, who are being asked to formally endorse it so that its findings can help shape Hartlepool’s next Local Plan and future housing decisions.
